Analyst estimates: Here’s what brokers think of National Bank Holding Corporation (NYSE: NBHC) after its first quarter report

National Bank Holding Corporation (NYSE:NBHC) released its first quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business was performing and what industry forecasters think of the business following this report. Results look mixed – while revenue was slightly below analysts’ estimates at US$67 million, statutory earnings were in line with expectations at US$0.60 per share. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know if they think there has been a strong change in the company’s outlook, or if business is as it is. habit. So we’ve collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what might be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for National Bank Securities

NYSE: NBHC Earnings and Revenue Growth April 22, 2022

Given the latest results, the consensus forecasts of the five National Bank Securities analysts predict revenues of US$309.3 million in 2022, which would reflect a solid 8.1% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to drop 22% to US$2.21 over the same period. Still, before the latest results, analysts had forecast revenue of $306.9 million and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.72 in 2022. Analysts appear to have turned more bearish after the latest results. While there was no change in revenue guidance, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might come as a surprise to learn that the consensus price target remained broadly unchanged at US$49.60, with analysts making it clear that the expected decline in earnings is unlikely to have much impact on valuation. This is not the only conclusion we can draw from this data, however, as some investors also like to take into account the discrepancy in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ​​National Bank Securities at US$55.00 per share, while the most bearish one values ​​it at US$46.00. Still, with such a narrow range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of ​​what they think the company is worth.

Looking at the big picture, one way to make sense of these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can deduce from the latest estimates that the forecast foresees a continuation of National Bank Securities’ historical trends, since the annualized revenue growth of 11% until the end of 2022 corresponds roughly to the annual revenue growth of 12% in over the past five years. In contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry should see revenue growth of 7.6% annually. Thus, even if National Bank Securities should maintain its revenue growth rate, we certainly expect it to grow faster than the industry as a whole.

The essential

The biggest concern is that analysts have cut their earnings per share estimates, suggesting headwinds may be coming for National Bank Holdings. Fortunately, there have been no major changes to the revenue forecast, with the business still expected to grow faster than the industry as a whole. The consensus price target held steady at US$49.60 as the latest estimates were not enough to impact their price targets.

With that in mind, we still believe the longer-term trajectory of the company is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates – from several National Bank Holdings analysts – going out to 2023, and you can see them for free on our platform here.

That said, it is still necessary to consider the ever-present specter of investment risk. We have identified 1 warning sign with National Bank Investments, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This Simply Wall St article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks and does not take into account your objectives or financial situation. Our goal is to bring you targeted long-term analysis based on fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not take into account the latest announcements from price-sensitive companies or qualitative materials. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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