COIN at low as Russia-Ukraine war sparks crypto selloff

  • COIN stock is down 31.6% year-to-date.
  • Coinbase is expected to report fourth quarter results after the close on Thursday, February 24.
  • Wall Street expects $2.25 normalized EPS on $1.99 billion for the major cryptocurrency exchange.

Coinbase (COIN), the operator of the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, could not have picked a worse session to present its fourth quarter earnings. As Russia invades Ukraine late Wednesday night, pre-market stocks are crashing. COIN is no different and is down 7.4% to $160 pre-market at the time of writing. This is below its all-time low of $162.20.

Coinbase Stock News: Rocky Earnings, EPS Uncertain

Coinbase is expected to report Q4 2021 results during market hours before making a call to executives after the session ends Thursday. Analyst consensus puts adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $2.25 on $1.99 billion in revenue. The price of bitcoin fell during the fourth quarter, so this may have had a rather large effect on EPS.

Over the past 90 days, COIN has received five BPA upgrades and four downgrades. Since its debut in the markets in April 2021, there hasn’t been enough earnings calls for analysts to have a good grasp on forecasting Coinbase’s trajectory. For example, for the full year 2022, the lowest estimate for EPS is $3.91 and the highest is $12.10 across 18 analysts.

The reason for this uncertainty is that Coinbase earnings reports have so far been scattered. Revenue for the first quarter came in at $1.8 billion, the second at $2.23 billion, falling back to $1.31 billion in the third quarter. The topsy-turvy nature of the crypto markets makes steady revenue and EPS growth unlikely. Of the three-quarters reported so far as a public company, Coinbase has missed revenue estimates twice and EPS estimates once.

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington predicts higher prices and volume in the fourth quarter, which will help COIN. In a note to clients, he wrote, “Coinbase staking revenue will continue to grow, reflecting greater sophistication by Coinbase customers and therefore greater use of staking services for Eth2.0.” Worthington expects trading volume to increase 40% from the third quarter.

Coinbase Stock Forecast: COIN at All-Time Low

Coinbase stock came into focus in early February when it broke the upper trendline of its descending price channel on February 7-8. However, she was unable to maintain her momentum.

COIN is now at a new all-time low ahead of Thursday’s earnings announcement. Since he’s never been to this territory before, it’s hard to say where the support is. It broke through the previous all-time low at $162.20. The bottom of the price channel, if extended, would result in a bottom of $110. However, given that the upper trendline was broken earlier this month, it is unclear if the price channel that started on November 9, 2021 is relevant at this time.

On the upside, COIN should target the supply zone between $210.19 and $215.25. This region served as support in June and July 2021, then again as resistance last month.

COIN 1-Day Chart

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