Stock Market Today – Stocks Close High as Treasury Yields Fall

Last updated at 4:02 p.m. EST

Stock indices ended today’s trading session in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.07%, 1.63% and 2.1% respectively.

The energy sector lagged the session, gaining 0.1%. Conversely, the real estate sector was the leader of the session, with a gain of 3.95%.

Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell to 4.08%, down more than 16 basis points. Similarly, the two-year Treasury yield also declined, hovering around 4.48%. This brings the gap between them to -40 basis points. The negative spread indicates that investors still fear a recession.

Compared to yesterday, the market is pricing in a higher probability of a Fed Funds rate cut for the end of the year. In fact, market expectations for a rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% have risen to 47.5%, up from yesterday’s expectation of 43.2%.

Additionally, the market now also assigns a 50.5% probability to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. For reference, investors gave themselves a 54.9% chance yesterday.

Consolidation of shares at closing

Last updated at 3:00 PM EST

Stocks are in the green heading into the final hour of today’s trading session. As of 3:00 p.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%, 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively.

Additionally, WTI Crude Oil is relatively stable as it hovers around the high range of $84 per barrel. Recent weakness in oil has led to lower prices at the pump compared to last week.

Indeed, the national average for regular gasoline was $3.775 a gallon, down from last week’s reading of $3.87. This is significantly lower than the all-time high of $5.016 per gallon on June 14.

The highest prices are in California, where prices are significantly higher than the national average, at $5.713 per gallon. On the other hand, Georgia is the state with the lowest gas prices, at $3.193 per gallon.

It will be interesting to see if this downward trend continues as the Federal Reserve looks to raise interest rates to fight inflation while oil producers cut production to keep the price down.

Inventories are positive; Home prices fall month over month

Last updated at 12:00 PM EST

Stock markets are in the green midway through Tuesday’s trading session. As of 12:00 p.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up 0.8%, 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively.

The energy sector (XLE) is lagging so far, down 0.2%. Conversely, the real estate sector (XLRE) is the leader of the session, with a gain of 3.1%.

Standard & Poor’s today released its S&P/Case-Shiller composite house price index in the US – 20 nsa. This report measures the evolution of housing prices in 20 metropolitan areas.

Year-over-year house prices rose 13.1% in August, lower than the 14.4% forecast. That’s down from last month’s reading of 16%. However, prices were down -1.6% month over month, missing expectations of a -0.7% drop. This is on top of the previous month’s report of a -0.8% decline.

However, it is important for investors to remember that this report is for the month of August, which means there is quite a significant lag in the data. It’s possible that the current situation is actually worse, as the cost of financing a home continues to rise while purchasing power declines.

Stocks Rise as Consumer Confidence Falls; Inflation hits Halloween candy

Last updated at 10:15 a.m. EST

Stock indices are in the green to start today’s trading session. As of 10:15 a.m. EST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are up 0.4%, 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence Report, which, as the name suggests, measures consumer confidence in the economy. This ratio is considered a leading indicator of spending habits, as optimistic consumers are more likely to spend than pessimists.

For October, consumer confidence came in at 102.5, which was worse than expectations of 106.5. That ends a two-month winning streak that saw back-to-back increases in August and September.

It should be noted that consumer confidence has been on an overall downtrend since its post-pandemic peak of 128.9 in June 2021. Compared to October 2021, sentiment has declined by 8.2% on an annual basis.

Undoubtedly, inflation played a major role in lowering sentiment. If things weren’t expensive enough, Halloween candy prices jumped more than 13% from last year. This increase can be attributed to rising labor, flour and sugar costs.

Futures plunge as blue chip giants prepare to report results

First published at 7:21 a.m. EST

Stock futures fell early Tuesday morning as some of the biggest names in tech prepare to report results. Third quarter performance and forecasts are closely watched by investors to understand the health of the economy.

Futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell 0.45% , while those of the S&P 500 (SPX) was down 0.35%, as of 7:05 a.m. EST Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) futures fell 0.12%.

Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) are expected to release their third-quarter results on Tuesday. Wednesday will see Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) at the revenue stage while Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) will report Thursday. The results of these mega cap blue chips are expected to be the main drivers of the market this week.

The market had a positive day on Monday and the indices ended the day in the green. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 had gained 1.19%, 1.34% and 1.06% as of Monday’s close.

After a strong day for stocks, news of a hiring freeze from Amazon and Discover Financial (NYSE: Homeless) disappointing results, leading to a slight decline in the price of each of their shares.

However, as we enter the thick of earnings season, most companies that have released reports so far have not been huge disappointments. This is partly because of their efforts to navigate through headwinds, and partly because of lower analyst expectations earlier.

Others on Tuesday’s hit list are United Parcel (NYSE:UPS), General Electric (NYSE:GE), Coca Cola (NYSE: KO) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) for before the bell; and grilled Mexican chipotle (NYSE: CMG) and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) after market close.

As for key economic data, August S&P/Case-Shiller home prices as well as August FHFA home prices are due out on Tuesday, showing us how the housing market fared in August and what is expected from the sector. Additionally, October’s consumer confidence data is also expected to be released later on Tuesday, giving us more insight into how consumers are managing inflation pressures.

Chinese policy and US actions

Earlier this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was re-elected for his third term as General Secretary of the Communist Party, following which Chinese stocks like Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Nio (NASDAQ: NIO) dropped significantly.

This fall was due to President Xi’s notoriously strict policies towards big business, which will now weigh heavily on businesses for some time to come. Additionally, maintaining a strict zero COVID policy is also expected to hurt trade. This is likely bad news for US-listed Chinese stocks, as well as stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) trying to gain market share in China.

Sectors will remain under pressure as Russia and Ukraine continue desperately

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden sits in the hot seat as the world’s largest economy battles inflation, recession, as well as pressure to help Ukraine while being careful not to attract wrath of Russia. With the midterm elections looming, the Biden administration is under pressure to stop worrying about Ukraine and tackle problems at home first.

Amid these undercurrents, energy, fertilizer and wheat stocks are expected to remain volatile until there is meaningful dialogue between the two warring nations, which is unlikely to happen. produce soon (at least until mid-term).

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